Leading When Uncertainty is Pervasive

Leading When Uncertainty is Pervasive

by | 27 May 2020 | Agility, Critical Thinking, Decision Making, Emotional Intelligence, Leadership, Mindset, Perception, Resilience, Uncertainty

That leadership is about dealing with change – handling difficulties as they arise and adjusting course when necessary – is not news, or new. It involves diagnosis, then action, and it involves a great deal of resilience.

The problem is, the nature of decisions, even the approach needed to make them, varies hugely depending on the level of complexity and uncertainty in the environment. The more volatile and ambiguous the circumstances we face, the greater the difficulty of diagnosis becomes. As this happens, decision-making becomes less science and more art.

This is a real challenge, right now. If there is a simple way to describe the operating environment of the last few months, it is the absence of predictability and increase in ambiguity. Complexity has been spiralling out of control, and this has fundamental implications for leaders, many of whom have leaned heavily on their market, technology or industry expertise in reaching their level of seniority. The problem is, as uncertainty increases, so does the risk that expertise will become more of a hindrance rather a help.

“I know that I am intelligent because I know that I know nothing.” ~ Socrates

The most compelling warning that I’m aware of, which highlights the dangers of over-reliance on expertise and being blinkered by certainty our knowledge is correct, comes from the largest study to date on this subject, completed by Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania. Over 20 years, and involving 82,361 forecasts by a large group of experts, he investigated their thought processes as they made predictions about future events, then he followed up to assess their accuracy.

This piece of work has become quite famous, perhaps because the high-level conclusion that Tetlock drew from it is rather memorable: that the average expert “is not much better at predicting the future than a dart-throwing chimpanzee”. Many of them, he found, would have done better if they had made random guesses!

I believe this should strike a note of caution for all of us…

What makes this study extremely important, is that Tetlock was able to identify a small group of experts who consistently defied the odds. They made startlingly better predictions than everyone else, even in the face of massive uncertainty.

What differentiated this group was their thinking style: they were comfortable with complexity and uncertainty and did not allow themselves to become overconfident. This allowed them to constantly seek new perspectives and to avoid getting locked into the rigid mindset of what they already “knew”.

This article suggests that responding to the pervasive and unprecedented uncertainty that we all face today requires a whole new style of leadership: one built on humility, openness and commitment. I like this suggestion, not least because strengthening these traits does much to overcome the problems associated with over-reliance on expertise outlined above.

Read the Article: Leading in Uncertain Times: Be Real – Not a Hero

My Advice:

Remember, one thing that history demonstrates conclusively is that almost everything, even the most widely accepted scientific “facts”, will be disproven eventually. Unfortunately, we naturally tend to resist the idea that we might be wrong, because falling back on our expertise is comfortable and almost effortless. On the other hand, learning requires commitment and can be very uncomfortable. That’s where resilience comes in. We must learn to welcome the discomfort inherent in facing new challenges to maximise our ability to cope with highly complex and ambiguous situations. By practicing humility and openness, which will help you to see things from a new perspective, while displaying confidence and commitment, you will dramatically improve your resilience, thereby transforming your ability to adapt effectively.

Building Resilience by Managing Your Mood

Building Resilience by Managing Your Mood

by | 27 May 2020 | Emotional Intelligence, Leadership, Resilience

A quick question: how reasonable is it to suggest that you set yourself a standard whereby you take responsibility for your mood 100% of the time?

For many people, this might seem an unreasonable expectation. After all, things happen that feel bad, and it seems completely natural and normal that, from time to time, emotions take over which drive our behaviours. However, research suggests that if you passively allow this to happen, it will very likely damage your results and cost your business money!

I want to challenge you to raise your game. Improving your self-leadership, so that you are able to “show up” at your best more often, is one of the foundations of emotional intelligence, and sits right at the heart of the capabilities that enable people to build resilience. However, it is also one of the most difficult things for leaders to achieve because, as outlined above, it requires a shift in mindset, not simply the development of new skills.

As highlighted in this article, the impact of a leader’s mood results can be huge. According to Daniel Goleman’s work (he was a forerunner in the field of EI):

  • Up to 30% of a company’s financial results are determined by the climate of the organisation.
  • Roughly 50-70% of how employees perceive the climate is attributable to the actions and behaviours of their leader.

If he’s right, this means that 20% of your financial results could be a direct result of your mood. That’s a huge opportunity, because not many people have understood that it is even possible for us to actively shape the way we feel and behave on an ongoing basis. Fewer still have built the mental capability to do so consistently.

The starting point is to recognise that our emotions result from our thoughts, and the way we think is something over which we have a choice. Much research has demonstrated this point; indeed, this discovery is considered to be one of the most significant findings in psychology of the last 30-40 years.

I know of no more powerful example of our power of choice over our thoughts than that provided by Viktor Frankl. He was a Jewish psychologist who spent the war years in one of the German concentration camps, and his book, Man’s Search for Meaning, makes for very thought-provoking reading.

Unlike most books about the Holocaust, Frankl doesn’t detail the atrocities that he and the other prisoners went though. Instead, he describes his observations about the mental impact of the extreme abuse they suffered.

Frankl noticed that, even in those appalling conditions, there were people who were still able to stay upbeat and provide care for others. He concluded that these men were proof that, “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way”. (Highlighting is my own.)

That any of these men were able choose their attitude, even in those horrendous conditions, surely proves that we must be able to do so in our daily work, regardless how much additional pressure we are facing today.

Read the Article: A Leader’s Mood, The Dimmer Switch of Performance

My Advice

The principle that underlies that famous Frankl quote is profoundly liberating, and offers the most powerful and rapid approach that I know to building resilience. By first accepting that we can always improve the way that we think and feel, then learning to do so, the impact on the people we work with can only be positive. Furthermore, our health benefits, and the knock-on effects on our business can be felt right down to the bottom line.